A lot of reports about Aaron’s criminal case have centered around reports that the maximum sentence for his alleged crimes was 50 years (in the superceding indictment). It’s also been reported that the prosecutor was actually going to seek 7 years if he went to trial, and that he would likely get close to that because the judge in the case was known to be a harsh sentencer.
I wanted to compare that possible sentence—84 months—with other sentences. The last year that statistics are available for is 2011. Many federal offenses weren’t tried at all in the District of Massachusetts that year, so I looked at national medians (Table 7).
84 months would be more than the median sentences for these offenses:
| Offense | Length of imprisonment |
|---|---|
| Manslaughter | 39 months |
| Assault | 30 months |
| Robbery | 65 months |
| Arson | 60 months |
| Drug trafficking | 60 months |
| Forgery/counterfeiting | 18 months |
| Racketeering/extortion | 60 months |
| Arson | 60 months |
| Firearms | 60 months |
A sentence of 84 months would have been less than or equal to the median for these offenses:
| Offense | Length of imprisonment |
|---|---|
| Murder | 210 months |
| Kidnapping/hostage taking | 188 months |
| Sexual abuse | 108 months |
| Child pornography | 84 months |
There you have it. According to the government, Aaron’s crimes justified a punishment as severe as that typical for child pornography, and less than murder, kidnapping or sexual abuse, but more severe than for arson, drug trafficking, manslaughter and firearms offenses.
Update: Tim Lee says the judge might have sentenced him to 10 years, or 120 months.